Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Presented to Moscow In the Coming Days, States Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.
Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist
Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.
In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.
Defense Assurances and International Support
“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.
Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”
However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute
On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.
The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Possible Scenarios
The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.
